Research notes
Dividend cut risk, examined
Original DividendMapper analysis of UK and US dividend cut risk across yield, prior-cut, sector-within-mega-cap, and cut magnitude. Every figure is reproducible from the source note and traces to a recorded query on the frozen research dataset.
- 6 min readAxis: magnitude
When FTSE 100 dividend cuts happen, they are shallower than FTSE 250 cuts
When a mid-cap (FTSE 250 size, $2bn to $10bn) UK dividend was cut, the median cut was -32.9% of the trailing 12-month dividend total. When a mega-cap (FTSE 100 size, $50bn+) dividend was cut, the median cut was -16.5%. The gap is 16.4 percentage points.
“LSE mega median cut -16.5% vs mid median cut -32.9%, 16.4pp shallower at mega”
- 7 min readAxis: sector
Within the FTSE 100's biggest dividend payers, sector matters 4.5x as much as size
Among LSE-listed shares with a $50bn or greater market cap at observation, the trailing 12-month dividend cut rate varies 4.5-fold by sector. Consumer staples cut at 8.8%; industrials cut at 35.4%.
“LSE mega-cap consumer_staples 8.8% vs industrials 35.4%, a 4.5x spread within one market-cap tier”
- 7 min readAxis: prior-cut
UK companies that cut their dividend once are 2.5x more likely to cut again within a year
UK large-cap shares whose trailing five-year payment record contains a rebuilt TTM cut cut again within the following 12 months 28.9% of the time, against 11.5% for clean histories. The gap survives every yield quartile and every specials threshold.
“LSE prior-cut 28.9% vs no-prior-cut 11.5% cut within 12 months, 2.5x lift, +17.4pp gap”
- 6 min readAxis: yield
Nearly one in three of the highest-yielding UK shares cuts its dividend within a year
Across 2,245 UK and 17,067 US large-cap observations from 2015 to 2025, the trailing 12-month dividend cut rate rises monotonically with reported yield on the LSE. The top quartile cuts one in three times; the bottom quartile cuts one in eight.
“LSE Q4 30.3% vs Q1 13.0% cut within 12 months, monotonic across all 4 quartiles, +17.3pp gap”