Research notes
Dividend cut risk, examined
Original DividendMapper analysis of UK and US dividend cut risk. Corrections and withdrawals stay on the page they apply to. Every figure is reproducible from the source note and traces to a recorded query on the frozen research dataset.
Strategy tests
Every dividend strategy we have tested, including the ones that found nothing
- 6 min readAxis: magnitude
Withdrawn: are dividend cuts at the UK's biggest companies shallower?
Withdrawn 10 October 2026. The first version said cuts at UK companies worth $50bn or more were half as deep as cuts at companies worth $2bn to $10bn. Rechecked, the gap is smaller, moves with the method, and is partly currency movement on dividends declared in dollars and euros.
“Withdrawn: the rechecked 11.7-point gap cannot be told apart from zero once companies are resampled”
- 7 min readAxis: sector
Withdrawn: does sector predict dividend cuts among the UK's biggest companies?
Withdrawn 10 October 2026. The first version reported a 4.5-fold spread in dividend cut rates by sector among UK companies worth $50bn or more. Each sector turned out to be one to six companies, and the gaps are within what chance would produce.
“Withdrawn: 19 companies across six sectors are too few to support a claim about sectors”
- 7 min readAxis: prior-cut
UK companies with a dividend cut in the past five years are 1.7x as likely to cut again within a year
UK large-cap shares that cut their dividend in the previous five years cut again within the next 12 months 22.6% of the time, against 13.7% for clean records. In the US the lift is 3.6x. Corrected 9 October 2026.
“LSE prior-cut 22.6% vs no-prior-cut 13.7% cut within 12 months, 1.7x lift, +9.0pp gap (90% range 6.3 to 11.6)”
- 6 min readAxis: yield
More than one in four of the highest-yielding UK shares cuts its dividend within a year
Across 2,247 UK and 17,109 US large-cap observations from 2015 to 2024, the 12-month dividend cut rate rises with reported yield on the LSE. The top quartile cuts 26.1% of the time; the bottom quartile 11.1%. Corrected 9 October 2026.
“LSE Q4 26.1% vs Q1 11.1% cut within 12 months, rising across all 4 quartiles, +15.1pp gap (90% range 11.3 to 18.8)”