What’s this dividend stock actually worth?
A Dividend Discount Model that values a stock by the dividends it pays you. Three scenarios, a margin-of-safety badge, and a sensitivity table that shows how much the answer moves when your growth and discount-rate assumptions move.
Need the plain-English version first?
Read the DCF vs DDM guide for model choice, assumption risk, and when each approach fits. Then come back here to run the numbers on your dividend stock.
Your inputs
Fetch a ticker, or enter the numbers yourself. Outputs recalculate as you slide.
UK tickers end with .L (e.g. ULVR.L, SHEL.L). US tickers also work. Try SCHD or AAPL.
Search by name or symbol. We pull price, dividend and growth from the listed currency.
One company-wide number, not just your dividend cheque.
The price you'd pay today. Sets the margin of safety against your intrinsic value.
Risk-free ≈ 4.5% (10-yr gilt). A 4pp equity premium gets you to a starting discount rate.
Discount-rate presets
Must stay below your discount rate. 3–5% is a sober long-run figure.
Spread 4.5pp between discount and growth, the engine of the answer.
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At today’s £24.00, this stock looks fairly priced. Base +16% · Bear -36% · Bull +165%.
Intrinsic value · Base scenario
£27.73
What the Gordon Growth Model says one share is worth, given your inputs. Growth 4.0%, discount 8.5%.
- Current price
- £24.00
- vs current price
- +15.6%
- Probability-weighted
- £33.59+40.0%
- Weighted MOS
- 28.6% (attractive)
Margin of safety
13.5%
Fair value
Intrinsic value is in line with the current price. No obvious bargain, no obvious mispricing. Worth checking your assumptions before acting.
Future yield on cost
What today’s price gets you, and what it could become.
Today
5.00%
At £24.00
In 5 years
6.08%
Dividend ≈ £1.46/share
In 10 years
7.40%
Dividend ≈ £1.78/share
Compounded at the Base scenario growth rate (4.0%). Past dividend growth doesn’t guarantee future hikes.
Where to next
- Track the stocks you have valued Valuation is one half. Tracking what you actually own is the other. Start with the tracker basics.
- Project the income picture Roll per-stock fair value up into a portfolio retirement-income range across Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios.
- Pick a tracker tool Sharesight vs DividendMapper for UK income investors, honestly.
This is not financial or tax advice. Calculations are for illustration only and rely on inputs and assumptions you control. Tax rules and contribution limits change, so verify against current gov.uk guidance before making decisions.