What’s this dividend stock actually worth?
A Dividend Discount Model that values a stock by the dividends it pays you. Three scenarios, a margin-of-safety badge, and a sensitivity table that shows how much the answer moves when your growth and discount-rate assumptions move.
Your inputs
Fetch a ticker, or enter the numbers yourself. Outputs recalculate as you slide.
UK tickers end with .L (e.g. ULVR.L, SHEL.L). US: SCHD, AAPL, JNJ. Auto-fills price and dividend; growth stays manual.
One company-wide number, not just your dividend cheque.
The price you'd pay today. Sets the margin of safety against your intrinsic value.
Risk-free ≈ 4.5% (10-yr gilt). A 4pp equity premium gets you to a starting discount rate.
Discount-rate presets
Must stay below your discount rate. 3–5% is a sober long-run figure.
Spread 4.5pp between discount and growth — the engine of the answer.
At today’s £24.00, this stock looks fairly priced. Base +16% · Bear -36% · Bull +165%.
Intrinsic value · Base scenario
£27.73
What the Gordon Growth Model says one share is worth, given your inputs. Growth 4.0%, discount 8.5%.
- Current price
- £24.00
- vs current price
- +15.6%
- Probability-weighted
- £33.59+40.0%
- Weighted MOS
- 28.6% (attractive)
Margin of safety
13.5%
Fair value
Intrinsic value is in line with the current price — no obvious bargain, no obvious mispricing. Worth checking your assumptions before acting.
Break-even yield
What today’s price gets you, and what it could become.
Today
5.00%
At £24.00
In 5 years
6.08%
Dividend ≈ £1.46/share
In 10 years
7.40%
Dividend ≈ £1.78/share
Compounded at the Base scenario growth rate (4.0%). Past dividend growth doesn’t guarantee future hikes.